Year to Date: 5-4 (+0.28 units)

We were able to right the ship after an 0-3 Week 2 and came back with a positive record in Week 3. Did I want another clean sweep? Of course. But if there’s one thing gambling teaches you, it’s to take what you can get and keep it moving. We’re above .500 on the year, but that’s not good enough for me. I want some separation from the median, and this is the week to take it.

Utah -7.5 vs Iowa State -115

I would have loved to grab this number at under a touchdown, but unfortunately I don’t think that is coming. Luckily, I like this number regardless because I think Utah is one of the most underrated teams in the country. I was concerned when Kyle Whittingham left his position as head coach for those cheaters at Michigan, but new man in charge Morgan Scalley has picked up right where his predecessor left off. Iowa State isn’t going to let the Utes walk all over them, their defense has proven to be very strong early in the season, but they also haven’t gone up against an offense like their Big 12 counterparts yet. Scalley has deployed star quarterback Devon Dampier and backup Byrd Ficklin in a way that is brand net, with both sharing the field and making defenses sweat. Both have elite running ability, and if they get bottled up can easily pitch it out to another strong option on the ground in running back Wayshawn Parker. Iowa State’s offense doesn’t scare me much. Cyclones quarterback Jaylen Raynor hasn’t proved much in the air, making the offense very one dimensional. Utah currently ranks 15th in the country in rushing defense (2.68 YPC, 75.0 YPG) so I have faith that Utah can make their life difficult on the way to a win.

Trinidad Chambliss Over 1.5 Passing TD’s -113

After last weeks emotional win, everyone is on Ole Miss to drop a road game in Gainesville against a very game Florida Gator team. I’m staying away from the spread in this one because I do think it’s going to be a back and forth game, but I do really love a prop here. Ole Miss may need to rely more heavily on the passing attack as star running back Kewan Lacy may not play due to injury, which is why I’m backing start quarterback Trinidad Chambliss to throw for at least two touchdowns. Florida has looked solid so far this year, but their defense isn’t a gamebreaking unit that Ole Miss can’t take advantage of. I expect this to be a pretty high scoring matchup, so Chambliss should be able to make enough plays in the air to cash this prop.

Georgia vs Oklahoma Under 45.5 points -118

Get ready for a true SEC slobberknocker in Athens, Georgia on Saturday afternoon. Both the Bulldogs and the Sooners rank inside of the top 10 in the country in total defense (Georgia at #7 with 3.27 yards per play allowed, 5 touchdowns allowed, Oklahoma at #9 with 3.78 yards per play allowed, 2 touchdowns allowed). Oklahoma has shown no signs of a run game so far this year, relying on John Mateer and his very underwhelming arm. With Georgia being able to key in on the pass game I expect them to really force Mateer into poor decisions trying to move the ball. Oklahoma has been dominant against the pass game so far, so Bulldogs quarterback Gunnar Stockton should also expect. a tough day at the office. The difference between these two teams is that Georgia has a very strong rushing attack highlighted by Nate Frazier, and while the Sooners should be able to slow them down, it’s only a matter of time before the Bulldogs break free for a big play. Both of these teams should be comfortable playing in a low scoring matchup, so don’t expect to see a ton of tempo from either side. Bleed the clock, that’s what we all want to see in this one.

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