Hello friends, welcome to week 5. I’m labelling this week, Prove it to me week. Let me elaborate.

We’re through 4 weeks, we’re starting to get a pretty good idea of who these teams are. But now it’s time to start seeing some of these guys separate from the pack. Or are you just one of the rest? The standout team for me in the spirit of that is the Florida Gators. Florida is coming off one of its biggest wins in years. Likely the biggest since they took down Utah at home. Now like Nick and I talked about on the podcast the Gators then followed that up with a dud of an effort against Kentucky (which I remember because I had Kentucky that night). Going to Columbia, Missouri has proved to be a banana skin in the past for some teams. Florida in what is one of the most obvious let down spots we’ve seen will have to be on their game to the take down Austin Simmons and the Tigers.

The Mississippi State Alabama matchup also falls under this category. Is it same old Mississippi State who come up small in big moments? Is it going to be soft Kalen DeBoer who just isn’t a fit for SEC Football? Show me.

Last week we went 2-2 -0.24 units. The best bet lost, thanks a lot Maryland. Not a good feeling when you lose an over by the hook and one of the teams scores 54. The Best Bet now sits at 3-2 +0.74 units, overall my record is 12-7 +3.8 units. Also the contest is shaping up to be an absolute doozy. My record is 8-4 and Tyler sits at 7-5. Now to the picks.

Alabama at Mississippi State +6 O/U 59.5

I’ve been on the Tide a few times already this season. Keelon Russell is playing lights out ball the moment. But the Bulldogs is a clear step up in competition for the Tide. This line has moved in the Tide’s direction which does give me some pause. But I’m going to lean on Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs high powered offense to keep this game close. Six just feels like too many points to me. Hail State +6 -112.

Louisville @ NC State +3.5 O/U 58.5

Brutal home loss for the Cardinals last week against Wake Forest that no one saw coming. The Cardinals defense has become an issue this season. Against power opponents they have given up 41, 31 and 30. I think both teams scores the ball here. We’ll play over 58.5 -110.

Michigan @ Minnesota +5.5 O/U 43.5

When this line opened I didn’t think I’d be giving out the Wolverines here (spoiler alert I am). But I think this line movement is a little overreaction to last week’s win for Minnesota. I think it says a lot more about Washington than Minnesota. Just look at that box score of the Michigan Iowa game. If not for some absolute stupidity the Wolverines win that ball game. Not to mention, Bryce Underwood played pretty well. I’m going to lay the points here Michigan -5.5 -110.

Side note, the PJ Fleck blood clip was pure insanity.

Best Bet

Florida @ Missouri +4.5 O/U 56.5

This game makes every fiber of my being uncomfortable. Florida off their biggest home win in years rolling into Columbia, Missouri. The Gators haven’t really faced adversity yet. How will Aaron Philo respond to a slow start? Can the Gators defense rise to the task? All of it makes me nervous. With all that said I think Florida has an elite unit, which absolutely matters in college football. My mind is telling me just to take the over but I’m going to back the Gators. Gators -4.5 -115.

That’s all I got for this written edition of four downs, I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed putting together, go enjoy the games everyone! Check out our Instagram feed for special gameday and promotional content. Our podcasts are available on Spotify. Check out our friends on the The Rangers Ed Podcast! We’ll be back with more soon.