The bitter cold of this past winter has finally given way to sunny spring days in the tri-state area, and with those warm temperatures comes the return of playoff basketball to Madison Square Garden. While the NBA “playoffs” kick off with the play in round during the week, the Knicks will lay in wait to take on the Atlanta Hawks Saturday night at The World’s Most Famous Arena. Since I last covered this year’s team, a lot has happened. They had some downs, mostly a lot of ups, won and NBA Cup, and it all added up to a 53-win season, their best since the 2012-13 season with Carmelo and company.

All of that success has generated a lot of excitement and a lot of consternation, which is interesting when viewed through the long lens of recent Knicks history. This era of Knicks basketball, the best since the late 90’s, started five years ago now and culminated oddly enough in a first round playoff clash with the Hawks. The 2021 Knicks were under Tom Thibodeau’s leadership and began to turn around the franchise amidst the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. They went 41-31, mostly behind closed doors, with a motley crew of players led by emerging young star RJ Barrett and veterans like Derrick Rose and Julius Randle. They broke a 7-year playoff drought when they clinched the fourth seed, which pitted them against the five seed from Atlanta. Yours truly went to game one of the series, a crowd that was one of my favorites that I’ve ever been a part of. While the Knicks did go out in just five games, the highlight of the series was their game two win at MSG, which kicked off the fan bases growing dislike of Atlanta guard Trae Young.

Now a lot has changed since that first round exit. Barrett and fan favorite Immanuel Quickly were traded to Toronto for OG Anunoby while Randle was shipped to the Timberwolves for Karl Anthony Towns and Tom Thibodeau had given way to Mike Brown. Meanwhile the Hawks flipped Young to Washington at this year’s trade deadline, and their mix of players has changed pretty dramatically from that squad that reached the Eastern Finals. While all of that has changed on the floor, perhaps the biggest change of all is off the floor for the Knicks. In 2021 the team and their fans had an element of being “happy to be here.” They had been so bad for so long that everyone was just happy to witness playoff games at MSG in the wake of the worst year of all our lives.

But no one is just happy to be here anymore. The Knicks and their fans are now expecting to compete for titles, and this season has been labeled “finals or bust,” and with good reason last winter. The team was coming off a close call elimination the Pacers in the conference finals, Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton out injured for seemingly the entire season, and despite a coaching change, the Knicks were going to run the same roster back this year. Of course, the road hasn’t been as easy as the Knicks or the fans were really hoping it would be with the Pistons emerging to lead the conference and Tatum returning to a strong Boston team. Those factors combined with the Knicks mid-year ups and downs has the fan base on edge heading into the playoffs, as there is open debate about how much we should believe in this team.

Everyone’s entitled to their own opinion on this group, considering they have left room for doubt, but I’m still all in on this year’s team and their chances to fulfill their ultimate goals. Why am I so bullish, well let’s start with what I think is the biggest difference between this year and last year’s team. At full strength their rotation is far deeper than it was at this time a year ago, as Mike Brown can comfortably play 10-12 players on this team nightly, and unlike Tom Thibodeau he’ll actually utilize them. Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet, Mitchell Robinson, Deuce McBride, and Jose Alvarado all filling key roles in the rotation. This comes in stark contrast to them using about 6-7 players the last two playoff runs.

Outside of the change in depth, I don’t think the Knicks are all that dissimilar to their predecessors. They have just about the same record, the same core of stars they can lean on led by captain clutch Jalen Brunson, though he will need a more consistent performance from his running mates this spring than he got last time around. No one is more important in that equation than Karl Anthony Towns who is coming off of another strong statistical season, and he needs to exhibit the aggression that he plays with when he is at his best. More drives to the rim, less settling for threes, and a lot of less silly defensive fouls. All of these pieces have fit together this year to place the Knicks 7th in defensive rating and 4th in offensive rating, stats like that alone should keep you feeling confident in this group.

There has been plenty of debate about the coach and the differences between himself and Thibs. In my humble opinion, the Knicks break even here when you consider how last year’s playoffs went. I’m sure some of you will see this as blasphemous hot take against Thibs, who I respect immensely, but last spring advancing to the conference finals was far from a coaching masterclass from the Knicks bench. JB Bickerstaff outcoached Thibodeau in round one and Joe Mazzulla’s refusal to adjust the Celtics offense cost his team games one and two of the second round series, and don’t get me started on Rick Carlisle’s handiwork in round three. The most important thing Brown can do in this postseason is to find the right combinations situationally that will make a difference in each series, using the versatility of the roster Leon Rose built for him. If he plays his cards right each night, it will come down to in game execution.

What’s been lost amongst all the ratings and all analysis of rotations and player performance, is the biggest statistical difference between last year’s squad and this one. That stat is their 29-23 record against teams over .500, versus last year’s mark of 15-23. It’s a number that speaks to the improvement of this year’s group in terms of their game in and game out approach and their step up in quality depth. Those numbers should only serve as encouragement when it comes to cheering them on in the playoffs…that ugly 0-3 record against the Pistons aside, but you can’t worry about them until you play them.

The focus right now needs to be on the series at hand. The Knicks round one opponent underwent some cosmetic changes to the roster midseason, and they really got better as a result of it. They sent the aforementioned Trae Young to Washington and former Knick Kristaps Porzingis to the Warriors. The second trade was more impactful than the first, as they got back Jonathan Kuminga, who had fallen out of favor with the dubs, and wound up helping to key Atlanta’s second half turnaround.

Atlanta’s rotation consists of four young guns in Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels and Nickel Alexander Walker, and they are supplemented by veteran guard CJ McCollum. Alexander Walker, the oldest of the talented foursome, came over from Minnesota in the offseason and took his game to new heights averaging twenty a game while shooting 38% from three-point land. Daniels meanwhile keys Atlanta’s defense, as he is one of the stronger on ball one on one defenders in the league, and he’ll no doubt see a lot of Jalen Brunson in this series.

The biggest mismatch in this series resides in the paint as the Knicks collection of bigs, especially if KAT plays a smart and physical game, is inside where the Hawks are overmatched. Okongwu is a fine player, but he’ll struggle with Towns, Mitchell Robinson, and the Knicks collection of fine rebounding smaller players. Attack the paint and get second chance points and this series is firmly in the Knicks hands.

I will take the Knicks in five in this series, as I think their size and scoring depth will be too much for Atlanta. Frankly, they need to get this series over with as soon as possible so they can rest up before likely facing the Celtics in round two. I believe this team will still represent the East in the finals so I can’t break away from them now! So let’s go Knicks everyone, no need to fear the pressure everyone, embrace the pressure, it’s a privilege to play in and watch them after all the letdowns.

On twitter you can find Mike @Mike_Sheerin, Tyler @TMon_19 and Sean @SeanMartinNFL. Subscribe to the site by hitting the follow button in the bottom right corner and entering your email address. Check out our Instagram feed @thebroadwaybreakdownsports for special gameday and promotional content. Our podcasts are available on Spotify. Visit the Rangers Ed Shop by clicking the link on our homepage. Check out our mailbag page to join the conversation here on the site and on our partners show, The Rangers Ed Podcast! We’ll be back with more soon.