Year To Date: 8-7 (+0.4 units)

Back on the winning side of things after a two-week slide. Feels good to be the smartest man in the room again. Unfortunately, we’re not looking at the greatest slate of games this week, but there is still some upside now that conference play is in full swing. I’ve focused more on some smaller schools to this point, but this week feels like the perfect time to take a swing at the Power 5 schools.

Missouri Moneyline vs Texas A&M +110

It feels like the Missouri Tigers have been incredibly undervalued all season. I get that they haven’t exactly been a dominant force so far this year, but they’re still a Top 10 team in the country with an offense that can explode at any moment. Missouri escaped back to back upset spots against Boston College and Vanderbilt to keep their undefeated season alive, and Luther Burden was a big reason why. One of the best receivers in the nation, Burden combined for 12 catches for 193 yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks, proving to be a threat in all portions of the field, especially the red zone where he has made a habit of high pointing the ball and making aggressive plays over inferior secondaries. Quarterback brady Cook hasn’t had eye popping stats, mostly because the Tigers have leaned on their running back duo of Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll to command the clock and force a run heavy game script. Texas A&M has turned things around after a disastrous start to the season, but it’s still hard to trust a team with such mediocre quarterback play. If Conner Weigman is unable to play due to injury, the team will be forced to go with Marcel Reed under center. Reed has shown he can make some flashy plays on the ground, I just don’t think in the pocket he can do enough to move the ball for the Aggies. I’ll take Missouri on the road, especially if they’re able to run the ball effectively and take the crowd at Kyle Field out of the game early.

Iowa +20 vs Ohio State

To put it simply, Ohio State looks like an absolute wagon, and while they haven’t played much competition the play on the field doesn’t lie. Quarterback Will Howard’s early rapport with freshman star receiver Jeremiah Smith has been must see television so far, but I think the Iowa Hawkeyes can at least contain it enough to keep the game close. Iowa’s offense looks brand new under new Offensive Coordinator Tim Lester, consistently putting up points in the 30’s through four games. Quarterback Cade McNamara hasn’t been lighting the world on fire, but he also isn’t making any true boneheaded mistakes that has cost his team so far. Much like I said about Missouri, Iowa will need to lean heavily on their run game and star running back Kaleb Johnson to milk the clock and try and take the crowd at The Horseshoe out of the game early. I don’t hate the under number at 45 either, because if Iowa wants to keep this game within 20 they will need to slop this game up and keep it low scoring.

Boston College +1.5 vs Virginia

Don’t love this spot, but if Boston College’s quarterback situation clears up they should easily become a favorite, so had to jump on this number while I could. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos missed BC’s last game against Western Kentucky with an unknown injury, but all signs point to him playing this week in a big ACC matchup. Castellanos has been a huge bright spot in a great start to Boston College’s season, limiting turnovers through the air and making plays on the ground when necessary. On the other side Virginia will be starting Anthony Colandrea, a player who has proven to be both electric and incredibly frustrating, depending on the day. Colandrea can let the ball fly, but sometimes tries to play hero ball and gets burned with some boneheaded mistakes. If Castellanos doesn’t play, be prepared for an ugly game because I have little faith in Grayson James to lead the Eagles to a victory. This is a coin toss, so let’s all pray to whatever god you believe in that Thomas Castellanos comes to the rescue.

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