As the calendar turns to 2024, we kick things off with the College Football Playoff Semifinals on New Years Day. It’s great to have the games back on January 1st as they’re well placed to cap off a relaxing sports day. I never enjoyed the games being played on New Years Eve as it felt like there was too much going on to truly focus on the action. This is the right year for the games to take centerstage, as the final iteration of the four-team bracket should create for the best games in the history of the event. Since the four-team playoff came into existence back in 2015, you can count the number of classic games that have been played on one hand. In a lot of those cases, we had matchups that at best could be called “unfair fights,” but fortunately this year isn’t one of those years. We’ll breakdown the games and pick winners in both. Let’s dive in!

1 Michigan vs 4 Alabama

The first semifinal pits the top ranked BIG Ten Champion Michigan Wolverines against the fourth ranked SEC Champion Alabama Crimson Tide. This classic matchup between blue blood programs like these deserves a classic venue, and it will be played in exactly that. The Rose Bowl, also known as “The Grand Daddy of ’em All,” will make for a stunning scene as these team’s massive fan bases will flood the famous stadium.

This matchup was plagued by controversy on both ends as the Wolverines arrive in the playoff amidst the Connor Stallions sign stealing scandal. Meanwhile Alabama has drawn the nations ire for “taking” Florida States place in the bracket this year. The good news is these teams can settle things on the field and put an end to the outside noise, something that is quite welcome given the poor coverage of the sport. Both of these teams have paths to winning the game and for that matter, the National Title, so let’s break them down here.

Michigan’s Keys to Victory

A Clean Game from Jim: Harbaugh will have to have a strong game on the sidelines for the Wolverines to win this one. The former Michigan quarterback is 0-6 in bowl games in his time running the program in Ann Arbor, an abysmal record considering the players he has had over the years. It feels like preparation has been an issue in these postseason games and they seem to go away from their bread and butter, something best exemplified in last years out of character meltdown against TCU. If Jim Harbaugh keeps this team on task and playing their typical physical straight forward style of football, they can win this one.

JJ Takes Care of the Ball: Last year JJ McCarthy turned the ball over three times in the semifinal loss to the Horned Frogs. McCarthy in my opinion is one of the most wildly overrated players in the game, thanks in part to Michigan’s propaganda team on the Big Noon Kickoff. He is not nearly as dynamic as made out to be, as his true strength is keeping this team on schedule and managing the game. Number nine needs to protect the football and let the Wolverine running game do the heavy lifting, if he does it’s hard to see Michigan losing this one.

Alabama’s Keys to Victory

Winning the Line of Scrimmage: This hasn’t been the typical Nick Saban Alabama team. They tend to be absolutely loaded at multiple levels and are one of the most physically imposing teams in the land. Instead, they had to search for their identity this year and battle their way through the SEC to make the playoff. After working out their kinks, they rediscovered pieces of their old form with a physical outing on both sides of the ball against Georgia. Michigan will seek to win the game in the trenches, if the Tide can outdo them up front, this is their game to lose.

A Big Game from Jalen: Jalen Milroe had one of the most interesting seasons of any quarterback in the country. After getting benched in week three for Notre Dame lacrosse star (yes you read that right) Tyler Buchner, number four got back under center and never looked back. Milroe has brought a dual threat element to a Tide offense in desperate need of big play ability from their quarterback, given their weapons being a bit subpar. If Jalen can keep the Wolverine defense guessing, ride with number four to the title game.

Prediction: Alabama 31 Michigan 27 – I have said it before on this blog and I will say it again now, Michigan didn’t deserve to be here due to their off the field nonsense and their resume. While they are undefeated, they won out unimpressively against a miserable schedule. Alabama has found their way as the year went on, look for them to force a turnover or two to set up Milroe to carry this team to the win like he has for weeks. Roll Tide!

2 Washington vs 3 Texas

Our second semifinal will kick late Monday night, a horrifying 8:45 PM if you have to work the next morning, in the Big Easy. New Orleans famed Mercedes Benz Superdome will play host to the two vs three matchup in the bracket between the Washington Huskies and the Texas Longhorns. Many a big-time contest has been played here, so while it doesn’t match the Rose Bowl’s stunning views or grandeur, “The Dome” is a fitting choice for a playoff game. As the last semifinal of the four-team era, this game should be great entertainment as both high flying offenses should be able to open the game up in doors.

The Huskies arrive here off an undefeated season, one where they ran their way through a gauntlet of a schedule to claim the PAC 12 title. Head coach Kalen deboer’s team is led by star signal caller Michael Penix, as the lanky lefty has put together a terrific year that garnered him Heisman votes. Opposing Penix and the Huskies is another big time QB from deep in the heart of the Lone Star State. Friday Night Lights “knockoff character” Quinn Ewers had a terrific year under Steve Sarkesian, running an offense that looks primed to go toe to toe with UW. Buckle up and bet the over folks!

Washington’s Keys to Victory

Winning the Trenches: While this theme keeps repeating itself and it may seem obvious to you reading along, winning up front has never been more important to a team than it is for Washington. The Huskies have dynamic offensive talent, but if they can’t give it time to operate or get stops on defense to control the tempo, they’re going to lock themselves into a game that is very hard to win. They were struggling in the middle of the year when they failed to protect Penix and their offense shutdown as a whole. Their defense consistently lost up front as well, leading to them giving up some crooked numbers to big time offensive teams, teams who were a lot like the Horns. They MUST win up front like they did against Oregon in two matchups this year if they want to the reach the Championship game.

Hitting the Explosives: While Washington wasn’t always consistently winning up front, one thing they did pretty much all season long was connect on big pass plays downfield. Lefty gunslinger Michael Penix is one of the best deep ball throwers in the land and he has a host of weapons he can target. While the offense possesses a lot of skill, no player stands out more than stud wideout Rome Odunze. Number one in purple and gold had a sublime season with 13 touchdowns and over 1,400 yards receiving. If this game becomes the shootout we expect it to be, the Huskies will need to hit on some quick strike big plays to hold serve.

Texas Keys to Victory

Pound the Rock: The Longhorns are finally “back” on the national stage and deservingly so. While this well-rounded team has a lot of stars, they arrive in the postseason missing one big name in particular. Stud running back Jonathan Brooks tore his ACL late in the year and the Horns have had to adjust their ground game. Freshman back CJ Baxter will get the start in the backfield in Brooks absence. Sark and company need to stick with the run in this game. If they run it anything like they did with Brooks during the season they will be able to dictate the tempo of this game and control the clock, something critical in a potential track meet.

Quinn Becomes a Texas Legend: Mike Winchell, Vince Young, John Moxon, Colt McCoy. While two of those names are fictional, they all have one thing in common, they’re Lone Star legends. Quinn Ewers has the chance to solidify a place among those names with a big performance Saturday night in NOLA. Number three has had an excellent year, playing well in the Horns biggest games, and while he announced he will be back in Austin next season as well, this Semifinal is a “legacy game” for him. If he and talented wideouts Xavier Worthy (who is fighting a bad ankle) and AD Mitchell can hit on big plays like they did all season, Quinn could give a whole new meaning to “Texas forever.”

Prediction: Texas 45 Washington 42 – While this is a very “chalky” pick to make a from a final score perspective, it’s hard to see how this one isn’t high scoring. There is so much talent on both sides, and it’s led by very talented passers in both cases. I just think Texas has more firepower and that their defense is a bit more likely to get a stop in a big spot in this one. I like Texas to score last and pull it out to set up a rematch of their week two contest with the Tide. Hook Em!

That does it for my preview of the playoff semifinals. We’ll look ahead to the National Championship game once the matchup is set and also have an end of season recap for Notre Dame and College Football as a whole. Keep an eye out for a “state of the breakdown” coming as we move into 2024, a year that will see this site grow even more than it has! Follow me on twitter @YNWA9623 and subscribe to the site by hitting the follow button in the bottom right corner of your screen and entering your email address. Enjoy the games everyone!