Year To Date: 26-23-1 (+0.24 units)

For the first time since I started throwing out all my plays, we had a negative week. Although it was a 4-4 week, we still lost a small bit of money, and for that I am sorry. The card wasn’t great and I tried my best, but luckily for you lovely readers this weeks card looks much better. Let’s get to work.

SMU Moneyline vs Louisville -135

This is a great spot for an SMU team that all of the sudden is right in the mix to make it to the ACC Championship game. The Mustangs are coming off of a much needed bye that was used to rest up and get quarterback Kevin Jennings healthy after he was nursing an ankle injury the last few weeks. Jennings hasn’t been his best self this year, as he has constantly been hurt by turnovers, just like last year. Even with his flaws, I do trust him in big game scenarios, and a matchup against a Louisville squad off of two straight losses that have sunk their season is exactly that. SMU’s defense has been a bright spot as of late, and with Miller Moss and the rest of the Louisville offense really struggling, they have a chance to punch the Cardinals in the mouth.

Arizona -6.5 vs Baylor -115

This game could go one of two ways, either we get a back and forth shootout between two high powered offenses that comes down to the wire, or we get one of the ugliest games of the week. I’ve had a terrible track record betting Baylor this season, as Dave Arranda lives to take giant risks that have rarely paid off in a disappointing season all around. Noah Fifita and the Arizona Wildcats have bounced back after a dumpster fire season last year, and while they aren’t a threat to make it to the College Football Playoff, they are a frisky team that can challenge some elite level teams. Does Baylor get off the mat after traveling out to Arizona? I don’t think so, which is why I’m backing the Wildcats to cover.

JMU -13.5 vs Washington State -115

The Dukes are right in the hunt to be the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff, and they are playing some of their best ball at the most important time of the year. Their defense is a true difference making unit, and going up against a paltry Washington State offense, I don’t think they’ll face many issues. Add in the fact that JMU’s quarterback Alonza Barnett III is finally at full health and playing extremely well down the home stretch and I think we see a blowout.

TCU vs Houston Over 54.5 -115

Houston has been my cash cow this season, and after a bye week they’re back to make us more money. They’ve been an up and down team as of late, but if there’s one thing they can do it’s put up points. The defensive unit is solid, but they’re very susceptible to giving up a few big plays each week, something that TCU can definitely take advantage of. After getting torched by BYU last week, I think the Horned Frogs come out with some fire in their bellies and throw their best punch against an in state rival. I’m excited to watch Conner Weigman and Josh Hoover trade blows, hopefully leading to lots of points.

Penn State -8.5 vs Nebraska -108

As a Penn State fan, this has been the season from absolute hell for a variety of reasons. But for some reason this crew that remains after several massive injuries continues to fight, and because of that they continue to cover. This week in Happy Valley, expect the Nittany Lions to rely even more than usual on a strong run game led by Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton to run over a very weak Nebraska run defense. Much like Penn State, Nebraska is also down their starting quarterback after Dylan Raiola broke his fibula a few weeks back and have turned to backup quarterback TJ Lateef to run the offense. After a decent showing last week in a win against UCLA, I just don’t see that continuing in a raucous environment like Happy Valley.

New Mexico Moneyline vs Air Force -120

Air Force’s entire offense has been centered around quarterback Liam Szarka, and after what looks to be a season ending injury they are going to be fighting for their lives to get anything going. Jason Eck continues to be one of the best head coaches that seemingly no one is talking about and has the Lobos playing great football right now. This may be my favorite bet of the week.

BYU -2.5 vs Cincinatti -105

In one of the games of the week, Cincinnati stays home in their biggest game of the year to keep a shred of hope of making the Big 12 title game if they can beat a very game BYU team. After absolutely stomping out TCU last week, BYU is coming in with some real swagger backed by their electric offense led by true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier. The freshman has done it in the air and on the ground, and being able to rely on stud running back LJ Martin when things aren’t looking great is one of the best situations for a young player in the entire sport. Coming off of consecutive losses, will Brendan Sorsby and the rest of the Bearcats offense be able to keep up? They just might be able to, but I still think that BYU pulls away and wins by at least a field goal.