Hello friends, welcome back to the money back guarantee. Can you believe we’re already a quarter of the way through the season? I cannot. Before we get to the picks let’s talk some futures.

This slate Saturday is a big one. Highlighted by the Oregon Ducks heading to Happy Valley to play Penn State and Georgia hosting the Alabama Crimson Tide. I think this will be the first real benchmark that eventually decides the Heisman winner. As things stand Fernando Mendoza is the favorite at +850. I’m not looking to buy any of that stock. I think Indiana got hot at the right time against an overrated Illinois team. I’m looking at a couple guys to be big movers this weekend. If Oregon goes and beats Penn State I can see Dante Moore moving from +1100 to +700 at least. Gunnar Stockton whose odds at +1400 are intriguing could be a big mover. Want outside the box? Ahmad Hardy has been running like a man possessed at +5000 for Missouri. He’s just stacking 100 yard games so far.

It sure does feel like the National Championship is wide open as well. As things stand my National Champion is the Miami Hurricanes. Do they have a dopey head coach? Absolutely. Do I have some lingering concerns about Carson Beck at QB? Yes I do. The play at the line of scrimmage is another level. On defense Bain and Mesidor lead a dominant unit. The offensive line has been equally as impressive. I think line play wins late in the season so I’ll take the Canes, by the way +1600 on FanDuel is pretty decent value.

They won’t be official picks this week so I’d be remise if I didn’t share my thoughts on Oregon Penn State and Bama Georgia this week.

Dante Moore has never experienced an atmosphere like he will experience Saturday night in Happy Valley that is a fact. But the talent on this Oregon team is undeniable. If you haven’t heard the name Dakorien Moore you may hear it called a couple times Saturday. The 5 star freshman is an electric talent at receiver. At this point you know the names on the Penn State team. Allar, Singleton, Allen etc. but this Penn State team hasn’t played anybody. I can’t help but feel like this is a close game, I’ll be bold and pick Oregon.

As for the big game in the SEC we need to find out who Alabama is. Are they the team that showed up and got trounced by Florida State in Tallahassee or are they something more? On the Georgia side they just need to get over the Alabama hump. Kirby Smart is remarkably 1-6 as Georgia coach against the Tide. I simply do not believe in this Alabama defense at this point. If I’m wrong I’ll adjust but I’ll take Georgia to defend home field.

Last thing before the picks is the housecleaning from last week. Overall we went 2-2 and lost on the juice -0.22 units. Bringing us to 13-11 +0.66 units. The Best Bets rolled on, it wasn’t the dominating performance I expected from Boise State but a wins a win nevertheless. The best bet is now 6-0 +5.18 units. Now for the picks…

TCU @ Arizona State -2.5 O/U 55.5

A little Friday night action for the people? Sure thing.

Last week was a big week for the Big 12. Texas Tech separated itself as the favorite in the Big 12 with a dominant performance against Utah. Who will be the other team in the Big 12? I’m glad you asked. Quietly Arizona State really impressed in a big game against Baylor in Waco. Since a really shaky first half in Starkville I’ve been very impressed with Kenny Dillingham’s team. Shutting down Josh Hoover and the TCU offense will absolutely present some challenges but I’ll take the Sun Devils -2.5 -110.

USC @ Illinois +6.5 O/U 59.5

If you’ve listened to the pod I think I’ve been the number 1 USC backer in America this season. I’ve watched almost every quarter of SC football. And while they are undefeated and have put up some flashy numbers there’s definitely some chinks in the armor. On the other side of this matchup Illinois got absolutely embarrassed on national TV by Indiana. I’ve been pounding the drum that the Illini are a tad overrated all season. One week ago on the look ahead line Illinois was only a 1.5 point dog. Now it’s jumped to nearly a touchdown? Not so fast my friend. I think USC has some real issues in the secondary that Luke Altmeyer can take advantage of. I also need to see more from this SC offense against higher level competition. Give me the home underdog Illinois +6.5 -106. Not an official pick but Illinois could be live here, check the moneyline if you’re feeling bold.

Tennessee @ Mississippi State +7.5 O/U 62.5

There’s great vibes in Starkville as their beloved Bulldogs roll into a big home game against the Vols undefeated. I think Joey Aguilar and the Vols offense is just too explosive for Mississippi State to handle at this point. I’ll take Tennessee on the road -7.5 -115.

Best Bet

Notre Dame @ Arkansas +4.5 O/U 64.5

It’s been an incredibly frustrating start to the season for Notre Dame fans. Mainly because of one man, I really shouldn’t have to say his name. But I will, Chris Ash has taken the Notre Dame defense and turned it to a powder puff team. The major bright spot for the Irish has been at Quarterback. I’m not exaggerating when I say CJ Carr might already be the best Notre Dame quarterback I’ve ever seen. I think this Notre Dame offense will be able to go up and down on the Razorback defense. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is a very impressive athlete in his own right at QB. He leads an Arkansas offense that has posted at least 30 every game. The best bet this week is over 64.5 -115. I sincerely wish I had written this Monday and gotten you a better line but do not be deterred.

On twitter you can find Mike @Mike_Sheerin, Tyler @TMon_19 and Sean @SeanMartinNFL. Subscribe to the site by hitting the follow button in the bottom right corner and entering your email address. Check out our Instagram feed @thebroadwaybreakdownsports for special gameday and promotional content. Our podcasts are available on Spotify. Visit the Rangers Ed Shop by clicking the link on our homepage. Check out our mailbag page to join the conversation here on the site and on our partners show, The Rangers Ed Podcast! We’ll be back with more soon.