Year To Date: 12-13-2 (-1.9 units)

Slowly but surely we are making some progress. I know Week 8 was a tough one, but hopefully anyone reading stuck with me, because Week 9 was nicer to our pockets. A 2-1 week, hitting on a moneyline underdog helped us a ton, and we go forward looking to get back over .500 this week. The slate isn’t anything special with several Top 25 teams on bye, but there are still a few matchups I will be tuning in to.

Minnesota -3 vs Illinois

PJ Fleck looks to lead the Golden Gophers to a big résumé building win

To put it simply, Illinois is a paper tiger. They’re 6-2 on the season, but they might be the least impressive ranked team so far this year as all of their wins keep getting worse as those opponents have all fallen off the face of the earth in the last few weeks. Wins over Nebraska, Kansas, Purdue and Michigan now look like they should have all been cake walks, and Illinois struggled at some point with every one of them. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has put up impressive numbers this year, but it feels like he is coasting off of his impressive start to the season and has since started to sputter, including an absolute beatdown against #1 Oregon last week. Minnesota comes in winners of three straight, and while those wins also aren’t anything to write home about (USC, UCLA, Maryland) their defense has stepped up to the task and allowed quarterback Max Brosmer to flourish with the lead. Illinois defense is no pushover, but they have had trouble all year stopping the run, so expect the Golden Gophers to feed running back Darius Taylor early and often.

UNC -2.5 vs Florida State

Omarion Hampton has a chance to run wild on the Seminoles

My second pick of the day going against a home underdog, and this time that home team is best described as a dumpster fire. Florida State was dead on arrival this year, and things have only gotten worse following their season opening loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland. Sitting at 1-7 on the year, the Seminoles look like they will be going with their third string quarterback Luke Kromenhoek after replacing backup Brock Glenn in last weeks blowout loss to Miami. The team is a mess, they have nothing to play for, and they’re going up against a North Carolina team looking to become bowl eligible after a very important win last week against Virginia. Quarterback Jacolby Criswell is starting to gain confidence after having to take over for injured starter Max Johnson to start the year, and he has maybe the best safety valve in the nation in running back Omarion Hampton in case things go south. Like last week’s pick of BYU, I’m taking the team who has more to play for.

Pittsburgh +7.5 vs SMU

Eli Holstein wants to prove why he was one of the top rated QB’s in his recruiting class

Outside of this weeks Penn State-Ohio State matchup this might be the game I’m most excited for. Both teams are in the mix in a suddenly loaded ACC, and the winner could have the inside track to playing for the conference championship. I don’t expect Pittsburgh’s defense to pick off SMU five times like they did last week in their route against Syracuse, but Pat Narduzzi’s defensive unit can make life for SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings difficult. Add in the fact that standout tight end RJ Maryland is out for the season with injury and the offense may have a run heavy script. Luckily for the Panthers, shutting down an opponents run game is where the defense thrives. I don’t expect SMU to be totally inept like Syracuse last week, but Pittsburgh should be able to slow them down enough and give quarterback Eli Holstein opportunities to keep this within striking distance. I think getting this outside of the touchdown number is incredibly important, if this number was a point the other way I might stay away.

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