Year To Date: 8-10 (-2.6 units)

I’m just going to cut to the chase, last week was BAD, and I mean really, really bad. An 0-3 record has dropped us to our lowest winning percentage and unit share since we started, I simply have to be better for you loyal readers. Luckily we have one of the best slates of college football I’ve ever seen this weekend. Litterred with big Top 25 matchups, there has to be a chance for us to win some money back.

Penn State -3 vs USC

The two headed monster of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen might be too much for the Trojans

It’s not often I back my favorite team on a weekly basis, and even less often that I take action in such a big matchup, but this feels right. Penn State travels out west to matchup with with USC and will attempt to give them a rude welcome to the Big Ten by beating the Trojans at home. To put it simply, I don’t care where this game is being played, I just think Penn State is the tougher, meaner team. Every year we hear the same “this USC team is different! They play defense this time!” talk that always ends up being a boldfaced lie, and this year is no different. The Trojans are a soft team, and even a Penn State offense that hasn’t been world beaters can expose that. I am also a believer that Coach James Franklin has been holding back some of his playbook waiting for this game as the Nittany Lions haven’t played a very tough schedule yet. The offensive play calling can been vanilla so far this year and as a fan, I hope that’s just because he’s saving his big swings for more important spots in bigger games. Expect Penn State to try and control the clock with their two headed monster at running back in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and look for quarterback Drew Allar to attempt more passes deep as he’s shown the tendency to break a defense doing this way more than he did last year.

Iowa State -3 vs West Virginia

Rocco Becht looks to keep the Cyclones rolling in Morgantown

Taking the Cyclones here is a case of “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. If there’s one thing that Iowa State knows how to do it’s cover the spread, they are an impressive 4-1 so far this year against Vegas. This isn’t going to be a cakewalk to the finish line though, the West Virginia Mountaineers are coming in riding high off of a really impressive win over Oklahoma State (side note: I couldn’t have been more wrong about OK State, they STINK). The reason why I like Iowa State so much is because they play within themselves. They know what they’re good at and they stick to it without wavering. Quarterback Rocco Becht is having an awesome year leading the offense, he’s sitting just below 1,200 passing yards through 5 games with a 9-3 TD:INT ratio. Becht isn’t much of a runner but he has shown the ability to escape pressure and extend plays until one of his star receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins can get open to make a play. Defensively the Cyclones make an effort to muck up the middle of the field, which will be key to stopping a strong Mountaineers running attack led by CJ Donaldson. If Iowa State can hold the run game in check it will force quarterback Garrett Greene into a position to take more chances, and he’s proven that is not a winning formula this year. I like the Cyclones on the road by at least four points.

Hawaii +21 vs Boise State

Brayden Schager can do just enough to keep the Rainbow Warriors in it

If I have to scream it from the mountaintops I will.

YOU DON’T BET AGAINST THE RAINBOW WARRIORS ON THE BIG ISLAND!

Now that that’s out of the way, let me tell you why Hawaii might be my favorite bet of the week. Boise State travels out to Hawaii in an attempt to keep their squeaky clean record in the Mountain West and also boost all-world running back Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman stock. There is a good chance they do both of these things…..BUT Hawaii can allow that and still keep the score within three touchdowns. Boise State has much bigger fish to fry, they have a matchup with their biggest competition in the Mountain West next week in UNLV. I have a hard time believing the Broncos are going to go all out to beat Hawaii in what basically amounts to a tuneup game. They have already proven that they don’t need to play Jeanty in second halves of games, just last week he put up almost 200 yards rushing in the first half against Utah State and didn’t play a snap in the second half in an effort to keep him fresh and healthy. We could be in for another one of these situations this week if Boise State goes up enough early. This also leaves the backdoor wide open for a cover. Should the Broncos go up enough early they will almost certainly take their foot off the gas and allow Hawaii to creep back in to where the game ends with a respectable score. Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager has shown he can put up some points this year, give him an opportunity and he can at least keep this game within reach of the spread.

You can find Nick on Twitter @YNWA9623, Mike @Mike_Sheerin, Tyler @TMon_19 and Sean @SeanMartinNFL. Subscribe to the site by hitting the follow button in the bottom right corner and entering your email address. Check out our Instagram feed @thebroadwaybreakdownsports for special gameday and promotional content. Our fall of podcasts are available on Spotify. Visit the Rangers Ed Shop by clicking the link on our homepage. The store is live, and Little Ed has been in the lab cooking up some can’t miss items for you fans. Check out our mailbag page to join the conversation here on the site and on our partners show, The Rangers Ed Podcast! We’ll be back with more soon!