Year To Date: 6-6 (-0.3 units)

Back to back losing weeks is not a good feeling. If only the mighty Notre Dame Fighting Irish weren’t such cowards and could actually play well against an inferior team we could have been in the money this week. That’s what I get for letting the stooges at this site infiltrate my brain with their Irish propaganda. We live to see another weekend though, so let’s get back on track.

UNLV Moneyline vs Fresno State -120

The demise of the UNLV Rebels has been greatly overexaggerated. Being wary of them after all of the Matt Sluka drama is valid, but this is the perfect spot to take advantage and make money. UNLV has been absolutely rolling this season, most recently winning big on the road at Kansas before their bye week. Matt Sluka decided to redshirt the rest of the season due to “representations that were not upheld” in his NIL deal to come to the school, leaving the Rebels to turn to backup Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams on short notice. While this would normally be a disastrous thing, Williams might actually be better than Sluka. While Sluka was a tough rusher Williams has more speed and athleticism when escaping the pocket, and when stationary he can sling the rock (6,300+ career passing yards at Campbell before transferring). Sluka’s inaccuracy issues were bound to come back and haunt UNLV eventually, not they don’t have to worry about that with a more complete player. I’m expecting this UNLV team to come out hungry after all the news this week and put a hurting on Fresno State.

Oklahoma State +5 vs Kansas State

Both of these teams are coming off of tough losses that saw their playoff chances take a significant hit. Oklahoma State lost a close one to Utah in a game that felt like they never really had a chance until the very end, while Kansas State got their doors blown off in an upset against BYU. It will be an absolute battle in Manhattan, Kansas this week as both squads will look to get back to what made them so dangerous in the few weeks. Those things are the exact reason why I think this will end up being a close game. Both sides should attempt to establish the run early and often in this one, Kansas State has multiple options to run the ball, including dual threat Quarterback Avery Johnson and stud running back DJ Giddens. Passing the ball hasn’t been their strong suit so far this year so look for the Wildcats to get the clock running early and often. Oklahoma State boasts probably the best running back in college football in Ollie Gordon II, and while he hasn’t exploded onto the scene this year he has still been an elite weapon for the Cowboys. I think the Kansas State defense having to key in on the run will open up the Cowboys pass offense even more than normal. Oklahoma State should be able to exploit a really weak pass defense when necessary but it all unlocks if Gordon looks like the star he is. Expect the clock to move quickly in this game and the final score to end up within a touchdown.

Sam Houston State +9.5 vs Texas State

It’s a battle of the cats this week as the Sam Houston State Bearkats take on the Texas State Bobcats in a matchup of two very fun teams. Sam Houston State has taken the jump to the big time of Conference USA and in just one plus year have turned the program into a real contender. Don’t get me wrong, they aren’t making the likes of Alabama and Georgia sweat, but they have the looks of a program that will find continued success over the year. Led by quarterback Hunter Watson, the Bearkats are menaces on the ground, racking up close to 600 rushing yards from their top three rushers (Watson included). Their defense isn’t anything to turn your nose up at either, combining for 7 sacks and 5 interceptions so far. That group will have their hands full with start quarterback Jordan McCloud, though, who is lighting up the scoreboard so far this year with 9 touchdown passes and 815 yards in the air. I’m interested to see how much Sam Houston State commits to the run, as Texas State’s defensive line is off to a great start getting pressure in the pocket (12 sacks) and not giving running backs room to breathe. Looking at this line, I just don’t see enough separating these two teams to make it more than a touchdown spread, so I’m backing in the Bearkats in this one.

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