As I sit down to write this post, the calendar has turned to September, there air is cool and crisp, it feels like football season. And frankly, it can’t come soon enough, especially in the New York metro area. Big Blue and Gang Green have much better outlooks than the disasters that are the Mets and Yankees. Both of the locals will be spotlighted in their respective conference preview, to go with breakdown on their competition. We’ll go division by division, with playoff picks and an eventual conference winner. This is a stacked conference so cue the primetime music.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

The Bills enter the season coming off of back-to-back division titles and expecting to make it a three peat. Led by elite signal caller Josh Allen the offense should still be explosive, but they need to clean up the mistakes. Allen regressed slightly last season, his first without now Giants head coach Brian Daboll on the sideline, with too many careless turnovers creeping into his game. It’s not a very balanced offense as they seemingly don’t trust anyone but Allen to run the ball. James Cook will get the bulk of the carries with Nyhiem Hines out for the year due to an unfortunate jet ski accident. Defensively, they will need an aging and now injured Vonn Miller (who will miss the first four games) to carry a pass rush core that doesn’t feature another go to edge rusher. One thing is for sure, they will have to prepare to be the hunted in this loaded division and not the hunter.

New York Jets

After an offseason of darkness retreats, headline making signings, and Hard Knocks, it’s time for the Jets to hit the field. I’ve often said the beauty of being a Jets fan is not having expectations…it usually means you can’t get hurt. But gone are the days of Josh McCowan and “Fitzmagic”, as this loaded team is led by future Hall of Famer, and Big Lebowski impersonator, Aaron Rodgers. Dalvin Cook, Randall Cobb, and Allan Lazard join an already talented set of weapons with reigning offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson outside and a healthy Breece Hall in the backfield. Reigning defensive rookie of the year “Sauce” Gardner is the face of a top-level defense that carried the offensively challenged team last year. However, the coaching staff and offensive line remain concerns going into the season. This team has immense potential, provided these two question marks hold up their end of the bargain. Assuming of course, “the dude” doesn’t turn into Brett Favre.

Miami Dolphins

After making the playoffs a year ago, the fins are looking to take another step in a crowded AFC. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s group returns a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will remain a handful to cover while the defense will look for increased production out of last year’s addition Bradley Chubb and Christian Wilkins, despite Wilkins being at a contract impasse. They had the potential to feature a great shutdown corner tandem with Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey, but Ramsey’s preseason injury will keep him out until December. In the end, this teams fate rests on the health of one man, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Now entering his fourth season, it certainly seems number one can run this team, but questions still surround his ability to remain healthy coming off at least three concussions. None of this is meant as a criticism, Tua’s head injuries were very scary, and hopefully he can stay on the field. It will be good for the Dolphins, and by proxy, the league.

New England Patriots

“Under fire from the media” and “on the hot seat” are not usually words that apply to Bill Belichick. But it’s 2023 and we live in a bizarre timeline so here we are. The all-time great coach has taken some hits from the local Boston media this offseason and reportedly has owner Robert Kraft issuing ultimatums. Some of this is certainly earned by the way, as the Pats empire has begun to crumble due to some poor offseason’s, largely run by Belichick. While this one wasn’t particularly flashy, perhaps the best addition they have made in a few years comes on the sideline as Bill O’Brien returns as the offensive coordinator. O’Brien is tasked with getting Mac Jones back to his rookie form, leading an offense that now features JuJu Smith-Schuster and Zeke Elliott. Their defense will have to do some heavy lifting, though they’re capable of it with stud pass rusher Matthew Judon leading the way. Don’t sleep on “the hoodie” or his team, that is usually when they thrive.

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

It won’t take long for you to figure out how much I love Joe Burrow. I have been a fan since his time at LSU. There is just something about the swagger he carries himself with that has helped elevate the once moribund Bengals. Cincy comes in, much like the Bills, having won the division each of the last two years, and look poised to do it again. Zach Taylor’s squad returns much of the same team from last year’s trip to the AFC Title Game. They’re loaded on offense with Burrow targeting his dynamic trio of wideouts and new tight end Irv Smith, who is hoping to finally breakout in the league. The defense is well rounded and should perform well. Keep an eye on the secondary though, as second year safety Dax Hill and new signing Nick Scott are tasked with replacing star safety Jessie Bates who departed for Atlanta. Their perennially leaky o-line is the other area to monitor, a group they are hoping will improve from last year. I like this team a lot to make another deep run.

Baltimore Ravens

After a whirlwind offseason, the Ravens look set up to be a contender in a crowded conference. At various points it seemed they may well be in the quarterback market, as their contract dispute with Lamar Jackson dragged on, but once they locked up number eight on a brand-new deal, the Ravens went about surrounding him with weapons. Talented lightning rod Odell Beckham, first round pick Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor were added as weapons to take some off of the load off of star tight end Mark Andrews. The defense has plenty of young talent, anchored by last year’s trade deadline addition, linebacker Roquan Smith. Their athletic linebackers and secondary should give them plenty of versatility when it comes to matching up with their rival’s top end receivers. Ultimately this team’s success, like the rest of the league, will be subject to health. While that may seem obvious, they were ravaged by injuries across the roster last year, something that seemed to hold them back in a close first round loss to the Bengals. They’re not off to a great start on that front, with star corner Marlon Humphrey already out for a significant amount of time.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Trendy teams are always tricky to get behind in the preseason. But, at the risk of looking like a fool, I am with the wider media on the Steelers bandwagon. The black and yellow have the feel of a sleeper in this deep AFC. For better or worse, depending on which Steelers fan you ask, Mike Tomlin is back for his 16th season on the sideline. For my money, he remains a fine coach and this team’s young core, at least for the time being, seems much less combustible than the killer B’s that preceded them. This team’s engine is its elite defense, led by “game wrecker” T.J. Watt. A fully healthy number 90 will be backed up by young Alex Highsmith and veteran stalwart Cam Heyward, while stud safety Minkah Fitzpatrick patrols the back end. Keep an eye on rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. to make an impact this season as well. The offense remains the mystery, and second year signal caller Kenny Pickett will have to provide the answer. If the former Pitt Panther can take a jump in year two and take more advantage of weapons like electric receiver George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth, the defense won’t have to do everything all the time. With Najee Harris in the back field, this squad could be a physical matchup most teams can’t hang with on either side of the ball.

Cleveland Browns

We now hit one of the ultimate “boom or bust” teams in the entire league with the Browns. Head coach Kevin Stefanski enters his fourth season on the job, hoping to get the team back to the playoffs for the second time in his tenure, and he’s got the talent to do it. The defense is headlined by the dynamic Myles Garrett, who leads a talented front seven that should win up front. The back end is patrolled by sixth year corner Denzel Ward, with Juan Thornhill and Grant Delpit teaming up at safety. The offense’s motor is stud running back Nick Chubb, who will get the majority of the work with Kareem Hunt no longer in the fold. Chubb has the road plowed for him each week by a strong offensive line that could be one of the best in the league. David Njoku is becoming star at tight end and will work well in tandem with a talented receiving core featuring Amari Cooper, Donavan Peoples-Jones and new addition Elijah Moore. Despite all those wonderful pieces, this team’s playoff hopes rest on Deshaun Watson, who enters year two by the Lake. Last year was a mess for him, both on the field and off, if he can put the pieces together this team could be dangerous.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

As we hit the South, we come to a team that made an exciting return to the playoffs last season. The Jags got hot down the stretch, took the division from Tennessee, and then knocked off the Chargers wild card weekend in a stunning comeback. While they came up short against the Chiefs in round two, they laid the groundwork for a big year ahead. The heartbeat of this team is former Clemson star Trevor Lawerence who took a quantum leap in his second season in the league under one of its better coaches, Doug Pederson. His former college teammate Travis Etienne Jr. will be the bell cow back while the returning Calvin Ridley (fresh off his suspension) and Evan Engram headline the receiver and tight end group. While the defense doesn’t have one defining star it improved quite a bit since last year and should continue to mesh as the season goes on. Offensive line is something to keep an eye on, but this team should win this division going away.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are entering what feels like a transition year on many levels. The team is pushing for a new stadium in Nashville, they took a chance on wideout DeAndre Hopkins from the Cardinals in an effort to open up the offense, and they drafted yet another QB. This time it’s former Kentucky Wildcat Will Levis, who we may see take snaps away from veteran starter Ryan Tannehill as this season goes. Keep an eye on second year receiver Traylon Burks, he is a gifted young player but failed to make an impression in year one. Jeffrey Simmons and Kevin Byard headline a solid but not flashy defense. This team’s success begins and ends with head coach Mike Vrabel, who has been one of the best in the business over the last few years. He has always been able to get a lot out of this team and will need to again this year.

Houston Texans

Life gave the Texans lemons, and they made lemonade out of it…or at least they hope. After missing out on the first pick in the draft with a week 18 win in Indy, they managed to draft stud Alabama defensive end Will Anderson and Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. While both still have to show they can deliver week in and week out, the Texans may well have their new franchise cornerstones. They will be looking for fellow young players Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, and Tank Dell to show they belong as well. Keep an eye on the terrific story of receiver John Metchie who will officially debut after winning his battle leukemia, an inspirational story we can all get behind. Veteran newcomers Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz will lead the skill positions while Laremy Tunsil anchors an offensive line that needs to keep their young QB upright. Highly sought after first year head coach Demeco Ryans will be tasked with leading this rebuild towards success. They may have won the offseason, but now it’s time to perform on the field and show this planned rebuild has a chance to succeed.

Indianapolis Colts

The circus comes to town as we round out the AFC South with the Colts. Similar to the Texans, the Colts come into the season with a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback. Former Eagles OC Shane Steichen and former gators QB Anthony Richardson will try and keep the focus on the field and off the drama behind the scenes. Somehow still employed GM Chris Ballard has put his faith in this tandem that has some tools to work with on offense. The offensive line should be one of the better ones in the league and the receiving core should be able to help their young quarterback. Shaq Leonard and Deforest Buckner lead a defense that has talent but has a had a hard time staying healthy. The mess off the field has played out during training camp as toxic owner Jim Irsay and star running back Jonathan Taylor went to war over Taylor’s contract. Number 28 will likely be traded in season after reporting to training camp. But this has become an unwanted distraction for a team trying to turn the page on what was a wasted era.

AFC West

Time for the AFC West and the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. Pat Mahomes and company are looking for their third Lombardi since 2019 and once again have the pieces to do it. With no notable additions on offense, Mahomes will have to elevate a receiving core featuring Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco may be leaned on to cover for the wideouts early in the year as they sort things out. The defense returns most of the same faces from a year ago but will start the season without star Chris Jones, who is holding out. Something tells me this holdout won’t last long though, while Jones seems content to wait it out, I don’t expect the Chiefs to let this affect their title defense.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers enter the season off of a brutal playoff loss to the Jaguars. They remain one of the most talented teams in the league, led by star quarterback Justin Herbert. The Bolts return many of the same names we have to come to know on both sides of the ball. Keep an eye on rookie receiver Quentin Johnson to make a name for himself amongst their talented collection of skill position players. The o-line needs to be more consistent and should benefit from a fully healthy Rashawn Slater at left tackle. The defense is led by a terrific linebacking core of Joey Bosa, Kenneth Murray, Khalil Mack, and veteran newcomer Eric Kendricks. Corner J.C. Jackson is looking to return to his New England form, this along with a healthy Derwin James at safety could make for a lethal secondary. But head coach Brandon Staley has held this team back for two years now, with his questionable decision-making, and poor game management. If he can clean it up, the sky is the limit for this team, if not, he’ll be on his way out of Tinseltown.

Las Vegas Raiders

As the Raiders begin another season in “Sin City” there are some new faces in the mix. Receiver Jakobi Meyers joins a talented offense that already boasts Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Former Chiefs corner Marcus Peters joins a defense in desperate need of help, especially at the back end. But the headlining addition is the man under center, Jimmy Garoppolo. After a successful run in San Francisco, Jimmy G is being asked to help lead this team back to the playoffs following the departure of long-time signal caller Derek Carr. While he accomplished this in the Bay area a few times, the Niners as a team were geared towards his strengths. The Raider offense and Josh McDaniels scheme should work for him (it is the one he ran in New England after all), the silver and black defense may not be capable of providing the balance we saw in SF. Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones will need to rack up the sacks to carry this defense and give the offense a hand. If it doesn’t work out for Jimmy G, he could always join a rat pack tribute act, he’d make a decent Sinatra.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are looking to rebound from a nightmare campaign last season. The man charged with rectifying the mess left behind by Nathaniel Hackett is former Saints coach Sean Payton. Not to be too obvious, but fixing this team begins and ends with getting Russell Wilson going in the right direction again. He is surrounded by plenty of talent both in the trenches and at the skill positions so he cannot claim to not have the tools. The defense may need to carry the load early as the offense gets sorted out, and they’re certainly capable of it. Former Chiefs edge rusher Frank Clark joins Randy Gregory to rush the passer in a talented front seven. Pat Surtain and Justin Simmons lead a strong secondary that will be tested a lot in division. Like the Browns, the Broncos have a very high ceiling, but an almost equally low floor.

Preseason Picks

AFC East: Bills

AFC North: Bengals

AFC South: Jaguars

AFC West: Chiefs

Wild Card: Jets

Wild Card: Ravens

Wild Card: Steelers

In The Hunt: Chargers, Patriots

AFC Champion: Bengals

Let me know your picks for the season on twitter @YNWA9623. Keep an eye out for my NFC preview, which will feature my Super Bowl pick, before the season opener Thursday night. Follow the site by hitting the follow button in the bottom right of your screen and entering your email address.